***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 28.1 29.3 28.4 2.5 80.7 70.6 25.1 26.5 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 27.5 28.9 28.6 2.7 82.4 71.1 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 27.5 28.7 28.6 2.5 79.9 70.0 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 20.8 21.8 26.2 2.4 81.0 71.1 17.8 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 28.1 28.9 26.4 2.2 77.8 69.2 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 26.7 26.9 23.4 1.5 71.2 65.5 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 27.2 28.4 28.5 2.5 81.1 69.8 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.7 24.2 1.8 73.2 67.1 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 27.4 28.5 26.8 2.3 78.5 69.7 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 27.2 27.9 25.2 2.1 75.5 68.2 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 27.8 28.6 26.0 2.1 77.1 69.3 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 26.9 27.4 25.4 1.9 74.4 67.9 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 28.0 28.2 24.3 1.5 70.7 65.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 27.1 27.4 25.9 1.8 72.1 65.4 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 28.6 29.9 27.3 2.5 84.1 73.3 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 28.7 29.3 25.4 1.9 75.5 68.2 25.5 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 26.8 28.2 28.4 2.6 82.2 70.0 23.8 25.2 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 26.7 27.1 24.4 1.8 72.1 65.9 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 27.0 28.2 28.7 2.7 82.0 71.1 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 22.4 21.5 1.4 68.1 63.6 19.1 20.7 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 27.5 28.5 27.6 2.2 77.4 68.7 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.2 28.3 27.9 2.4 79.4 68.6 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 27.4 28.5 28.4 2.6 80.5 70.3 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 26.9 27.4 26.1 2.0 74.3 66.9 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 27.7 28.6 26.4 2.2 78.2 68.8 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 27.7 28.5 24.9 2.2 78.2 70.8 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 27.2 28.2 27.4 2.3 79.4 69.4 24.3 25.6 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.7 26.5 2.4 81.2 71.6 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 22.1 22.2 23.2 1.5 69.1 64.0 18.7 20.4 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 27.2 28.5 28.5 2.6 81.2 70.4 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------