***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 27.3 29.5 28.5 3.3 96.5 89.7 25.1 25.9 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 27.1 29.2 29.0 3.6 96.8 91.1 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 27.0 28.9 28.6 3.2 95.1 88.2 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 19.8 21.4 25.6 2.8 95.0 87.8 18.0 18.7 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 27.3 28.8 26.2 2.7 93.3 86.4 25.4 26.1 26.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 25.6 26.6 23.0 1.9 88.1 80.8 24.0 24.7 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 26.8 28.9 28.8 3.5 96.9 91.1 24.6 25.5 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 15.1 16.1 23.8 2.3 89.5 82.6 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 26.8 28.5 27.0 2.9 94.5 87.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 26.5 27.7 25.0 2.6 91.5 84.8 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 27.0 28.3 26.1 2.6 92.8 85.9 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 25.9 27.0 25.0 2.4 90.4 83.5 24.2 24.9 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 27.0 28.0 24.6 2.1 88.0 81.0 25.2 26.0 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 26.7 27.9 26.2 2.5 90.3 83.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 27.8 29.5 27.4 2.9 96.6 89.9 26.0 26.7 27.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 27.7 29.0 25.3 2.4 91.3 84.2 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 26.7 29.1 28.9 3.8 97.6 92.0 24.3 25.2 26.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 25.8 26.9 24.1 2.4 89.3 82.7 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 26.6 28.7 28.9 3.6 96.6 90.7 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 21.3 22.3 21.4 2.0 86.1 79.8 19.6 20.4 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 27.0 28.7 27.8 2.9 93.9 87.0 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 27.0 29.1 28.2 3.2 95.6 88.8 24.7 25.6 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 27.0 29.0 28.7 3.5 96.4 90.4 24.7 25.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 26.2 27.6 26.3 2.7 91.6 84.9 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 27.1 28.9 26.7 2.8 94.7 87.4 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 26.5 27.7 24.3 2.4 91.3 84.1 24.9 25.6 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 26.7 28.6 27.6 3.1 96.1 88.9 24.7 25.5 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 27.8 29.3 26.1 2.7 94.6 87.5 26.0 26.7 27.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 21.1 22.1 23.0 2.2 87.4 81.2 19.3 20.1 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 26.9 28.9 28.8 3.4 96.2 90.1 24.7 25.6 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------