***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 4.7 3.7 4.2 21.1 15.8 14.1 8.2 13.7 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 3.9 3.2 4.1 24.4 18.4 15.4 6.7 12.1 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 4.7 3.8 3.9 21.5 16.6 13.3 8.5 14.7 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 6.8 5.5 5.1 23.5 16.9 14.8 10.9 17.7 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 4.6 3.4 4.2 20.4 13.4 12.4 8.1 13.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 6.8 6.7 8.7 37.9 23.1 22.4 9.0 13.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.3 4.3 24.9 18.6 16.1 3.7 8.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 10.1 8.9 9.3 36.6 20.6 20.2 14.1 22.4 32.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 4.6 3.7 5.0 24.0 14.9 14.3 7.8 12.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 5.7 4.9 7.7 29.6 17.0 16.4 8.8 13.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 3.4 3.0 5.6 26.0 19.5 16.4 5.9 10.7 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 4.8 4.5 7.4 34.9 23.2 21.2 6.7 11.2 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 4.0 3.9 5.8 26.3 19.9 17.3 6.7 11.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 5.0 2.5 4.9 20.5 12.5 12.0 9.4 17.5 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 3.0 3.3 4.7 26.3 27.2 20.5 4.5 9.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 4.1 4.4 5.6 28.2 20.9 17.6 7.1 11.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 5.1 4.5 4.7 28.0 20.6 17.6 7.8 13.7 21.2 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 7.6 5.7 8.5 31.1 16.0 16.5 10.9 16.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 3.3 2.3 3.7 21.9 17.1 14.0 6.3 12.8 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 6.4 5.8 10.7 38.6 21.6 21.3 8.8 13.7 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 3.6 2.8 4.3 21.5 14.9 13.6 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 2.6 1.6 3.1 18.7 15.1 13.1 5.4 11.6 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 4.1 2.8 3.5 19.4 14.9 12.3 7.2 12.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 6.9 4.9 5.5 24.1 15.4 14.3 10.5 17.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 3.6 2.1 4.0 17.7 13.4 11.9 6.9 12.6 20.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 3.3 3.4 7.5 39.0 28.2 25.0 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 4.0 2.9 4.5 20.8 14.9 13.3 7.1 12.0 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 3.7 3.8 5.7 27.5 22.1 17.7 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 9.3 7.4 8.3 30.6 15.8 16.3 13.4 19.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 3.3 2.6 3.8 21.7 16.2 13.2 6.4 11.4 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------