***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 6.3 12.2 12.7 67.7 47.5 38.5 6.7 13.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.1 13.6 11.8 69.8 50.6 39.7 7.3 13.5 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 7.5 12.9 12.4 66.8 46.4 37.9 7.8 14.5 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.7 11.0 12.7 62.4 46.6 37.9 6.4 12.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.8 10.7 13.1 67.8 48.7 40.1 5.7 11.3 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 7.5 12.1 15.2 68.8 44.9 38.0 8.3 13.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 7.3 13.5 11.7 69.5 50.3 39.3 7.9 13.5 20.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.5 20.2 14.8 74.3 50.2 40.8 12.5 20.1 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.1 12.6 14.0 70.4 49.5 41.2 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.9 12.6 15.0 71.6 49.9 40.7 6.3 12.6 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.6 9.4 13.5 66.8 45.4 37.5 5.7 10.9 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.6 8.0 13.0 69.4 46.7 39.0 4.1 9.1 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 5.2 10.1 13.5 69.4 48.0 38.1 5.6 10.8 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.7 16.6 15.4 67.8 47.8 40.0 10.1 17.7 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.3 7.6 12.5 63.5 46.0 37.7 4.4 8.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 4.4 7.3 12.5 63.4 43.5 35.6 4.6 9.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.2 15.4 12.2 73.6 52.6 41.1 6.9 14.2 24.6 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.1 14.6 17.0 75.0 51.7 43.1 8.0 13.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.0 12.1 11.9 68.4 49.7 39.7 6.0 12.1 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 13.6 16.8 78.9 52.0 43.0 6.7 12.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.6 10.1 13.0 68.2 47.9 39.6 5.3 10.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.7 14.8 12.3 72.8 52.4 42.8 7.2 13.8 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.9 11.2 11.7 64.2 46.5 38.1 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.5 15.9 15.1 70.4 49.6 41.3 9.4 16.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.3 11.8 15.0 70.4 48.6 40.2 6.1 12.4 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 4.4 8.1 13.5 69.8 46.1 38.5 4.7 9.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 6.4 12.5 14.4 69.9 48.1 39.2 6.7 13.6 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.8 6.4 11.9 61.4 45.6 37.0 3.6 7.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.6 18.6 19.2 82.8 54.0 45.0 8.9 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 8.0 14.7 11.9 68.4 49.1 38.5 8.5 15.1 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------