***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 12.4 12.8 70.5 52.4 42.0 5.5 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.2 17.0 13.5 79.6 56.3 43.2 7.4 13.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.6 21.9 13.4 74.2 54.2 42.7 9.5 18.9 32.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.3 16.0 11.8 64.4 49.0 39.7 8.3 16.6 28.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.8 11.8 11.3 65.0 49.8 40.1 6.2 12.0 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.5 10.4 13.4 66.5 47.8 38.2 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.1 14.4 13.1 73.8 53.4 41.2 6.8 12.8 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.5 19.1 12.9 70.6 51.8 41.8 10.2 18.1 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.4 13.4 11.0 59.5 46.6 37.8 7.9 15.1 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.9 19.3 13.3 66.9 50.2 40.4 10.4 19.1 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.5 14.4 11.2 71.0 52.8 42.0 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.9 10.7 65.3 49.7 40.4 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.7 8.8 10.1 55.8 44.6 36.1 5.3 10.7 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.4 18.8 16.1 71.3 51.8 42.3 9.5 17.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.6 9.9 62.6 49.6 38.6 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.9 10.5 62.4 48.7 39.3 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.6 12.3 11.9 69.4 51.8 39.3 6.3 11.7 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 17.5 15.9 71.9 52.3 43.5 8.9 16.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.6 21.7 13.6 80.1 56.8 43.5 9.9 17.8 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.4 16.5 14.9 71.4 51.5 44.1 8.0 15.6 26.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 8.4 13.7 11.2 61.8 48.3 38.1 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.9 12.7 12.6 70.8 52.3 39.6 6.8 11.8 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.2 15.2 13.5 78.1 56.1 43.1 6.6 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.7 25.0 15.1 73.0 53.0 42.9 13.6 23.1 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.5 13.4 12.3 64.7 49.4 39.9 7.1 13.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 5.0 8.4 8.5 54.1 43.1 33.4 5.4 11.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.6 14.2 13.1 67.3 50.6 40.7 7.5 13.9 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.4 11.7 11.3 65.7 50.3 39.3 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.6 23.0 16.1 72.7 51.9 43.9 12.9 21.8 33.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 19.7 18.1 14.1 81.3 56.9 44.3 7.4 14.4 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------