***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.5 10.3 9.7 63.3 49.9 38.4 5.4 10.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.3 11.0 85.6 59.1 43.4 5.1 10.4 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.3 12.0 9.9 66.5 51.3 39.7 5.8 11.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.6 9.6 68.3 52.1 39.2 4.1 8.8 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 16.0 12.8 10.0 73.7 54.6 42.0 4.4 10.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.2 7.9 10.9 64.3 47.6 37.8 4.2 8.7 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.5 14.2 11.1 85.4 58.9 43.3 5.4 10.6 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.1 12.1 11.9 71.7 51.1 40.0 5.3 11.6 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.6 10.2 10.8 72.0 53.8 41.7 4.3 8.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.3 12.9 71.7 51.9 40.6 5.4 11.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.9 9.1 70.6 53.1 40.4 4.0 8.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.5 7.8 9.1 66.2 50.1 38.6 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 6.8 8.7 58.9 47.5 35.1 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.1 12.5 12.4 63.3 48.0 38.1 6.9 13.5 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.9 7.7 65.2 51.5 37.6 3.0 6.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.3 7.3 8.7 64.9 50.5 37.9 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.6 13.6 11.3 89.1 60.5 42.6 4.7 9.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.3 15.2 73.5 52.3 42.0 3.6 8.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.9 13.2 10.5 79.5 56.4 41.7 5.0 10.4 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 10.8 15.4 78.8 53.2 43.2 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.5 9.7 66.5 51.7 39.4 3.9 8.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.7 13.4 11.8 87.3 59.4 42.4 4.4 9.3 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 7.9 13.9 9.7 68.1 51.7 39.3 7.9 13.2 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.1 13.4 12.5 69.1 51.2 41.2 6.0 12.9 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.2 10.0 10.7 67.8 51.6 38.6 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.0 9.0 7.8 64.0 49.8 38.0 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.0 11.9 10.9 67.7 51.5 38.9 5.8 11.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.1 8.6 63.4 50.3 37.8 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.5 15.3 15.6 76.0 52.5 42.4 7.4 14.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.7 13.9 10.8 80.3 57.2 42.9 6.2 11.2 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------