***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 43.6 38.7 39.4 54.6 19.0 22.8 52.4 69.5 88.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 53.2 54.5 40.4 63.6 27.3 29.1 59.1 73.0 88.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 56.3 51.8 39.7 56.8 20.6 24.4 65.8 85.4 106.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 51.0 45.7 39.1 52.7 19.7 22.4 60.3 79.0 100.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 46.7 42.7 38.6 54.7 20.0 22.5 54.7 70.1 87.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 40.5 38.0 48.2 58.5 20.1 23.6 49.3 64.2 81.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 41.5 41.0 40.2 61.9 25.2 27.6 48.3 64.5 82.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 71.0 70.6 48.8 60.7 22.7 25.4 81.5 99.0 117.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 45.7 42.9 40.8 55.0 19.4 21.9 54.6 68.8 84.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 52.8 50.3 48.8 57.8 20.4 23.4 63.4 81.1 99.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 41.7 39.1 39.4 56.4 20.3 23.6 49.9 63.7 79.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 33.3 30.3 40.2 57.4 21.3 24.2 39.6 54.1 70.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 37.1 31.4 38.0 51.2 17.2 20.4 44.1 57.7 72.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 66.1 59.0 48.7 55.0 19.5 23.0 75.1 94.6 116.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 28.1 27.8 34.8 53.4 24.4 25.5 34.7 49.8 67.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 33.5 29.3 37.3 53.3 19.1 22.3 39.6 52.7 67.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 43.5 42.4 40.1 63.5 26.9 28.9 48.7 67.2 88.5 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 57.3 54.8 56.7 61.2 22.6 25.5 64.1 78.7 94.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 56.9 56.5 39.8 61.5 25.8 28.0 63.8 80.2 98.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 50.4 48.2 57.7 64.6 24.0 26.9 56.2 71.4 87.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 42.2 36.9 38.1 53.3 18.0 21.5 51.0 66.3 83.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 42.4 40.9 39.7 61.5 25.6 27.5 48.5 66.3 86.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 52.9 49.5 38.4 56.7 21.7 24.9 58.8 71.8 85.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 68.8 65.1 48.1 58.2 21.3 24.5 77.7 95.7 114.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 42.7 36.3 42.0 53.4 17.3 21.4 51.9 68.8 88.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 29.0 27.7 37.3 56.0 20.4 22.6 38.2 53.4 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 47.7 42.3 43.0 55.1 18.6 22.5 56.3 72.8 90.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 36.5 35.1 37.5 53.2 22.2 24.2 42.1 52.7 64.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 74.4 72.8 59.3 64.0 24.4 27.1 81.5 98.5 115.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 51.4 52.2 40.6 61.8 25.4 27.6 58.8 73.9 89.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------