***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 13.6 13.8 15.6 1.4 75.3 74.1 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 14.0 14.2 15.5 1.5 75.4 74.2 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 15.6 15.8 15.8 1.4 76.3 75.2 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.6 13.0 1.3 74.7 73.3 8.2 9.1 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.2 13.5 1.1 72.8 71.4 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.8 10.9 10.7 1.0 72.6 70.9 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 14.0 14.1 15.5 1.5 75.0 73.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 5.0 5.5 10.3 0.6 62.9 62.1 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.2 13.8 1.0 72.5 70.9 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 12.3 12.8 11.6 0.7 66.0 65.0 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.5 13.0 0.8 68.0 66.7 11.0 11.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 10.2 10.7 11.3 0.6 64.1 63.3 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.2 11.8 0.8 68.3 66.9 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.0 13.6 1.2 73.7 72.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.3 15.2 1.2 77.5 75.4 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.1 12.4 0.9 71.1 69.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 14.2 14.4 15.4 1.6 76.4 75.2 12.0 12.9 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 47 53 100 11.5 11.6 11.1 0.9 67.9 67.0 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 13.9 14.0 15.5 1.5 76.0 75.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 6.8 7.2 8.7 0.6 61.8 61.3 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 13.2 13.4 15.2 1.3 76.5 75.0 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 13.5 13.6 15.5 1.6 77.3 76.3 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 13.6 13.8 15.4 1.5 76.8 75.8 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.3 13.7 1.2 73.6 72.2 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.4 14.6 1.2 72.6 71.5 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 11.7 11.9 10.9 1.0 72.6 71.4 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 13.9 14.0 15.2 1.4 75.5 74.3 11.2 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 12.0 12.3 13.8 1.4 79.2 77.2 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 9.3 9.9 10.0 0.7 63.8 63.2 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 14.1 14.2 15.7 1.4 75.1 74.0 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------