***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.4 15.4 -0.1 47.8 48.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.3 15.4 0.0 50.1 50.1 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.8 15.7 0.0 49.2 49.8 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.6 12.9 -0.3 43.7 45.9 9.7 11.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.5 13.3 -0.2 46.3 48.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 10.8 -0.2 45.4 47.5 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.3 15.4 -0.1 48.3 48.4 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.3 11.0 0.0 50.4 51.4 5.2 6.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.7 13.7 0.0 50.1 51.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.6 12.0 0.1 51.3 52.1 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.3 13.0 0.0 49.0 50.4 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.4 11.8 -0.1 48.2 49.7 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.9 11.7 -0.1 48.3 50.2 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.7 13.8 0.3 56.6 55.8 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.1 14.5 -0.4 41.7 44.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.6 12.4 -0.1 47.9 49.6 12.9 13.7 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.7 15.3 0.1 51.3 51.0 13.6 14.6 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 11.5 0.1 53.3 53.4 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.4 15.4 0.1 51.7 51.6 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.1 9.4 0.2 53.8 53.7 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 15.0 -0.1 48.5 49.5 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.2 15.4 0.3 55.4 54.6 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.1 15.4 0.2 54.0 53.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.9 13.6 0.1 53.4 53.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.7 14.2 -0.3 44.4 46.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.2 11.1 -0.1 46.7 48.7 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.0 14.8 -0.2 46.6 47.6 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.4 13.4 -0.3 43.5 46.0 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.8 10.8 0.2 53.8 53.8 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.6 15.5 0.0 49.3 49.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------