***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.9 17.0 0.5 60.0 57.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.8 17.0 0.8 64.5 60.9 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.2 17.2 0.5 60.3 57.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.4 14.6 0.4 59.2 57.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.3 14.6 0.5 59.9 57.6 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.4 12.4 0.5 60.2 57.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.8 17.1 0.7 63.2 59.7 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 12.3 0.5 62.1 59.8 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.4 14.9 0.5 61.5 58.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.3 13.3 0.5 61.6 59.1 12.9 13.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 13.9 0.4 60.4 58.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.3 13.1 0.5 61.4 59.2 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.0 12.6 0.5 62.4 59.7 12.5 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 14.6 15.0 15.0 0.6 62.2 59.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.4 15.9 0.3 57.6 55.5 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.8 13.5 0.5 62.0 59.3 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.3 17.0 0.8 65.2 61.2 13.5 14.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.0 12.8 0.5 61.8 59.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.7 17.0 0.7 63.9 60.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.5 8.9 10.3 0.6 63.3 60.5 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.3 16.3 0.5 60.1 57.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.4 16.7 0.8 64.4 60.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.9 14.3 16.8 0.7 63.1 60.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.5 14.7 0.5 61.5 58.9 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.1 15.5 0.5 59.4 57.1 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.4 12.5 0.6 64.1 61.2 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.1 16.3 0.6 60.2 57.7 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.4 15.0 0.4 59.0 56.8 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.2 12.0 0.5 61.0 58.7 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.9 17.1 0.7 63.0 59.8 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------