***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 13.9 14.9 17.2 -0.1 48.1 47.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 13.3 14.7 17.2 0.1 51.6 50.1 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.9 16.3 17.5 -0.1 48.4 48.2 15.3 16.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.3 14.9 -0.2 46.2 47.6 10.4 11.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.9 14.9 -0.1 46.5 47.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.2 13.0 0.1 51.7 51.5 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 13.7 14.8 17.3 0.0 50.1 49.4 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.6 12.9 0.1 53.0 52.2 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 13.3 14.3 15.1 -0.1 46.6 47.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.2 14.3 13.7 0.0 50.0 50.0 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.2 14.2 14.5 0.0 50.2 50.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.3 13.7 0.1 52.2 51.8 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.4 13.0 -0.1 48.5 49.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.0 15.2 0.0 50.4 49.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.3 16.2 -0.2 44.2 46.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 13.2 14.4 13.9 0.0 49.9 50.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.1 15.4 17.2 0.1 52.7 50.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 11.8 13.0 13.2 0.1 51.8 51.1 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 13.5 14.8 17.2 0.1 52.3 50.5 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 9.0 10.8 0.2 54.3 52.7 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.2 14.1 16.5 -0.2 46.3 47.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 13.2 14.5 17.0 0.1 52.8 50.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 12.8 14.1 17.1 0.1 52.9 51.0 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 13.1 14.5 15.0 0.0 49.6 49.6 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 13.0 14.0 15.8 -0.1 47.8 47.9 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 12.2 13.2 12.8 0.1 51.8 52.4 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.9 16.5 -0.1 48.1 47.9 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.2 15.3 -0.2 45.1 46.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.6 12.5 0.1 53.4 51.9 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 13.6 14.9 17.3 0.0 50.4 49.3 13.9 14.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------