***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.5 16.3 0.4 63.7 61.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.6 16.3 0.6 67.9 64.4 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.1 16.5 0.5 65.2 62.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.1 13.8 0.3 61.4 59.3 10.0 10.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.8 14.1 0.3 61.8 59.7 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.8 11.7 0.3 63.7 61.0 11.0 11.4 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.5 16.4 0.5 65.7 62.6 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 11.6 0.3 62.3 60.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.0 14.4 0.4 63.8 60.9 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.8 12.7 0.3 62.7 60.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.6 13.6 0.3 62.3 60.0 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.7 12.5 0.3 61.4 59.4 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.2 12.3 0.3 63.1 60.4 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 14.7 14.7 14.4 0.5 68.6 64.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.8 15.4 0.2 59.6 57.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.0 13.0 0.3 64.1 61.4 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.9 16.2 0.6 69.6 65.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.6 12.1 0.4 65.1 62.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.5 16.3 0.6 68.8 65.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.3 9.8 0.4 64.2 61.7 7.4 7.9 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 15.7 0.4 64.1 61.2 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.2 16.2 0.7 71.2 67.2 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.0 16.2 0.6 69.9 66.1 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.2 14.3 0.5 66.8 63.5 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.8 15.0 0.3 61.3 59.3 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.8 12.7 11.8 0.4 66.5 63.1 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.9 15.7 0.4 63.7 61.2 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.9 14.3 0.3 62.6 60.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.8 11.3 0.4 63.7 61.2 9.8 10.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.7 16.4 0.5 66.2 63.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------