***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 24.2 24.1 23.7 0.1 50.9 50.8 22.6 24.0 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 24.6 24.8 24.1 0.2 52.8 52.6 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 24.6 24.4 23.7 0.0 49.7 49.8 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 17.3 17.5 20.7 0.3 55.0 54.7 16.0 17.2 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 25.1 25.2 21.9 0.2 53.6 53.4 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 23.5 24.0 19.6 0.6 59.8 59.2 22.2 23.3 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 24.4 24.6 24.2 0.4 54.6 54.3 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 12.9 13.2 19.7 0.5 57.3 56.8 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 24.5 24.6 22.9 0.3 54.8 54.5 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 24.4 24.6 20.8 0.4 56.3 55.9 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 24.9 25.1 22.3 0.5 57.2 56.7 23.4 24.6 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 23.8 24.1 20.8 0.5 58.3 57.6 22.5 23.6 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 24.9 25.5 21.8 0.7 60.6 59.9 23.5 24.7 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 24.5 24.4 22.4 0.2 52.4 52.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 25.4 25.7 23.8 0.5 57.7 57.3 24.2 25.2 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 25.5 25.9 21.7 0.6 59.2 58.5 24.1 25.3 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 24.2 24.4 23.9 0.3 54.0 53.8 22.4 24.0 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 23.8 24.0 19.8 0.4 55.2 54.9 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 24.2 24.3 24.0 0.2 52.2 52.1 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 19.2 19.3 17.4 0.2 53.0 52.7 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 24.6 24.6 23.6 0.1 51.6 51.5 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 24.7 24.7 23.7 0.2 52.3 52.2 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 24.7 24.8 23.8 0.3 53.7 53.5 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 24.0 24.1 22.2 0.2 53.1 52.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 24.9 24.7 22.5 0.0 50.2 50.2 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 24.5 25.1 20.1 0.8 62.0 61.1 23.2 24.3 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 24.5 24.3 23.1 0.0 50.6 50.6 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 25.6 25.8 22.0 0.5 57.8 57.3 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 19.1 19.2 19.0 0.3 53.9 53.7 17.6 18.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 24.5 24.6 24.1 0.2 52.4 52.2 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------