***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.6 26.8 0.2 52.5 51.3 25.1 26.4 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.3 27.1 0.5 56.6 54.1 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.0 27.2 0.3 54.4 52.8 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.3 24.8 0.3 53.6 52.5 17.7 19.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.6 25.3 0.4 54.9 53.5 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.8 23.1 0.8 60.4 58.0 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.0 27.0 0.5 56.1 53.6 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.3 23.7 0.8 60.1 57.6 13.0 14.5 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.2 25.6 0.5 56.4 54.5 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 24.3 0.7 59.0 56.5 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.6 25.0 0.6 58.1 56.0 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.9 24.7 0.8 59.6 57.3 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 26.7 27.0 23.9 0.7 59.2 57.1 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.2 25.4 0.7 59.2 56.2 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.1 25.9 0.2 52.6 51.7 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.5 24.6 0.7 58.3 56.3 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.8 27.0 0.6 57.9 54.8 23.7 25.2 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.9 23.9 0.8 60.2 57.3 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.7 27.1 0.5 56.8 54.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.7 21.4 0.9 61.2 58.5 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.1 26.4 0.3 53.6 52.3 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 26.7 0.6 57.7 54.9 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 27.1 0.7 58.2 55.6 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.8 25.4 0.7 58.7 56.0 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.1 25.0 0.1 51.8 50.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.4 27.1 24.4 1.2 64.8 61.6 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.7 25.9 0.2 52.7 51.4 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.1 25.2 0.3 53.6 52.5 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.3 22.9 0.9 60.7 57.7 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.0 27.0 0.4 55.6 53.5 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------