***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.3 21.2 26.1 111.2 66.5 59.6 8.0 13.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.9 13.4 17.1 82.2 54.6 48.2 6.6 11.8 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 20.1 21.7 21.1 92.1 59.4 53.9 9.6 16.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.5 17.9 19.2 78.3 52.0 48.3 10.1 17.2 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.5 23.0 95.3 60.2 54.1 7.9 12.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.5 17.1 64.6 37.5 35.8 7.4 12.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.7 17.9 86.2 56.7 50.7 4.9 10.1 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 24.9 22.4 24.5 85.5 50.8 47.3 15.7 22.1 29.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.0 18.5 24.9 103.9 63.2 57.0 8.7 13.6 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.4 25.9 91.0 55.0 50.7 8.6 12.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.3 20.7 84.3 54.0 49.6 7.0 11.1 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.3 12.4 21.8 88.2 53.9 49.6 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.1 10.3 20.7 79.7 51.4 46.8 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 24.0 26.3 25.8 95.7 59.5 54.6 10.8 19.8 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.5 10.0 14.1 66.2 49.0 41.7 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.0 20.3 84.2 53.9 49.5 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.1 14.4 15.2 77.2 52.0 46.5 7.7 13.7 21.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.6 20.0 27.0 94.1 56.2 51.0 11.3 17.4 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 17.8 16.3 17.8 84.6 55.5 49.3 6.5 13.3 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.1 14.4 25.9 87.5 52.5 47.7 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.2 18.9 24.2 103.9 63.4 56.8 9.0 14.0 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.9 12.6 14.5 70.3 49.2 44.8 6.3 13.2 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.8 19.2 89.6 57.4 52.0 7.3 13.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 19.7 20.1 23.8 91.3 57.2 52.6 9.8 16.5 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 15.8 22.1 29.4 112.0 66.9 60.9 7.5 13.5 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.0 4.5 12.7 55.8 36.3 34.3 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 14.7 20.0 28.5 113.0 67.1 61.0 7.0 12.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.4 10.4 17.3 70.9 48.5 44.1 6.4 10.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.5 20.1 24.6 86.3 51.2 47.4 13.8 19.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.6 18.3 84.3 55.5 49.3 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------