***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.6 24.7 18.2 113.9 67.3 53.1 6.8 13.7 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.7 24.7 16.0 113.9 68.1 52.3 7.7 14.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.1 24.5 17.2 114.8 67.6 55.6 7.5 14.1 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 26.0 32.0 19.7 145.3 77.1 65.2 8.0 14.4 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 23.5 25.9 18.2 131.6 72.9 60.6 7.8 13.6 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 26.6 28.0 22.7 129.9 72.3 61.1 8.3 14.8 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 7.4 23.6 17.1 119.5 69.9 54.4 7.4 13.4 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.6 19.6 121.9 70.0 58.8 10.6 18.0 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 16.5 21.8 17.6 112.1 66.7 55.4 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.4 27.0 20.3 123.1 70.5 59.1 6.7 13.5 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 21.4 22.8 20.1 130.6 73.1 61.3 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.9 19.3 17.9 119.6 69.0 56.7 4.9 10.0 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.0 23.8 20.6 122.3 70.0 58.9 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.5 26.4 20.1 115.6 68.0 56.9 9.5 16.2 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 19.3 24.3 18.2 151.4 77.7 62.4 4.0 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 19.9 21.2 19.7 130.8 72.9 60.1 5.1 9.9 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.2 25.7 15.6 111.6 67.8 53.2 7.1 14.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 24.0 23.4 22.1 119.5 68.8 57.4 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 8.6 24.6 15.4 109.0 66.1 51.6 7.9 14.7 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 23.6 21.7 116.7 67.4 57.0 7.2 13.6 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.9 22.1 18.7 118.5 69.0 57.1 6.5 12.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.8 25.5 16.0 123.0 70.8 56.0 9.1 15.0 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.4 18.5 15.0 103.3 63.8 52.7 6.8 12.2 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.1 24.5 19.2 112.9 66.9 56.1 8.4 14.9 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.2 22.3 21.0 118.9 69.2 56.7 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.7 17.1 107.9 64.5 55.4 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.6 23.8 21.3 119.6 69.4 56.7 5.6 11.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 17.8 24.1 19.7 162.0 80.4 65.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 30.6 30.8 24.2 123.8 70.5 59.9 8.7 16.3 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.0 27.6 16.8 117.4 68.8 54.2 9.4 16.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------