***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.1 25.0 18.6 136.5 74.5 53.2 5.3 10.7 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 5.8 21.5 13.9 109.0 67.1 49.2 5.7 11.9 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.3 36.3 16.8 127.7 72.2 54.1 6.8 15.5 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.4 28.4 14.4 119.5 69.7 52.6 5.7 13.0 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.1 18.7 13.7 103.4 65.2 50.6 5.1 10.8 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.0 15.9 107.4 65.4 52.5 6.2 11.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.5 19.3 14.8 108.5 67.2 51.1 4.9 10.3 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.2 28.5 15.5 105.7 65.4 52.4 11.2 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.0 21.1 14.5 99.7 64.3 51.4 6.6 13.2 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.2 28.3 16.2 100.2 64.0 51.9 10.2 18.5 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.3 19.3 12.4 102.0 64.8 50.1 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.2 13.2 101.5 63.9 51.1 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.3 15.1 13.3 96.7 62.2 50.0 5.1 9.9 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.5 28.0 18.4 108.4 66.3 50.5 8.6 16.4 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.3 19.5 13.7 141.3 75.1 51.1 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.1 12.4 13.0 106.1 65.5 50.4 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.1 16.0 13.5 104.3 65.4 50.5 4.9 9.7 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.7 21.9 17.9 96.5 62.4 52.7 8.1 15.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 6.6 24.2 14.0 112.3 67.8 49.0 6.5 13.2 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 21.8 16.4 102.6 63.9 50.5 8.1 14.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.8 21.0 15.9 113.9 68.7 53.0 6.5 12.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.2 16.2 14.0 106.6 65.9 48.2 5.3 9.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.4 20.1 14.3 114.4 68.0 49.5 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.0 35.8 18.1 112.3 67.4 53.0 11.9 21.4 34.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.2 29.3 19.0 131.0 73.3 54.3 6.3 13.0 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.2 15.2 10.8 90.4 60.7 47.5 4.9 10.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.4 30.3 21.0 138.5 75.0 54.2 7.5 13.8 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.3 20.8 13.2 119.0 69.8 50.6 5.6 10.9 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 27.2 29.9 17.9 97.7 62.2 52.4 13.4 22.0 32.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.1 23.6 15.5 117.0 69.3 50.8 5.2 11.5 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------