***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 11.2 11.2 12.7 -1.4 23.8 26.6 11.8 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 -1.7 21.2 23.6 11.8 12.8 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 12.6 12.7 12.7 -1.4 23.6 26.0 13.3 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.0 10.4 -1.1 27.7 31.4 8.4 9.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.1 -1.1 26.7 30.0 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.5 8.7 -0.8 29.9 34.2 9.6 10.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 11.4 11.3 12.3 -1.6 21.7 24.2 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.1 8.4 -0.9 30.4 33.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.4 11.5 -0.9 29.6 32.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.4 11.5 9.5 -0.9 30.9 34.1 11.5 12.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.1 11.0 -0.8 31.3 34.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.3 9.4 -1.0 27.1 30.2 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 10.5 10.6 10.0 -1.0 27.6 31.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 11.7 11.9 11.1 -1.0 30.4 32.8 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.3 12.6 -0.9 28.5 33.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 11.2 11.2 10.4 -1.0 26.5 30.3 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 11.8 11.6 12.1 -1.6 22.9 25.2 12.2 13.1 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.0 8.9 -0.9 30.9 33.4 10.1 11.0 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 11.3 11.2 12.3 -1.7 21.8 24.1 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.9 -0.9 31.6 33.9 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.2 12.4 -1.1 27.5 30.4 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 11.0 10.9 12.3 -1.6 22.8 24.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 10.7 10.8 12.3 -1.6 23.5 25.6 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.1 -1.0 30.1 32.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 11.1 10.9 11.7 -1.4 23.4 27.1 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 10.0 10.1 8.6 -1.0 25.9 29.6 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 11.0 10.7 12.1 -1.5 23.0 26.5 11.5 12.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 10.3 10.3 11.2 -0.9 28.9 33.0 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.2 8.4 8.1 -0.9 32.0 34.3 8.5 9.3 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 11.4 11.2 12.5 -1.7 21.1 23.6 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------