***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.2 -0.6 39.1 41.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.9 -0.7 36.9 38.9 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.2 16.5 -0.4 41.8 43.0 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.5 14.0 -0.2 45.7 46.5 9.7 10.8 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.3 13.9 -0.3 44.0 45.6 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.4 11.8 -0.2 44.3 45.6 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.4 15.9 -0.7 36.7 38.7 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.4 12.0 0.0 49.9 49.6 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.6 14.1 -0.2 44.6 46.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.6 12.7 -0.1 48.4 48.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.5 13.5 -0.2 45.6 46.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.5 12.8 -0.1 48.2 48.5 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.9 12.0 -0.2 44.3 46.0 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.2 14.2 -0.1 47.3 47.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.6 15.3 -0.3 42.8 43.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.7 12.8 -0.2 44.8 46.2 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.8 15.8 -0.7 37.8 39.6 13.5 14.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.4 12.0 0.1 51.4 51.5 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.4 16.0 -0.6 38.2 39.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.2 9.8 0.1 51.7 51.2 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.4 15.4 -0.3 43.7 45.1 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 12.5 13.1 15.7 -0.6 39.5 41.0 12.8 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 12.4 13.0 16.0 -0.5 40.7 42.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.7 14.0 -0.1 47.9 48.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 12.2 13.0 14.7 -0.5 40.3 42.5 12.6 13.6 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.2 11.7 -0.4 41.5 43.8 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.8 15.4 -0.5 39.0 41.3 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.6 14.3 -0.2 45.7 46.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.6 11.4 0.1 51.7 51.2 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.5 16.2 -0.7 37.6 39.5 13.2 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------