***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.6 15.2 -0.8 27.7 31.1 13.7 14.2 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 12.9 12.9 14.9 -0.9 25.3 28.3 13.3 13.9 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 14.8 14.9 15.4 -0.7 29.8 32.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.1 12.9 -0.5 33.1 36.4 10.1 10.7 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.8 11.9 13.1 -0.6 29.7 33.3 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 10.8 10.9 10.9 -0.5 30.2 34.2 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 13.2 13.3 14.9 -0.9 25.8 28.5 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.6 5.9 10.9 -0.4 35.7 38.1 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.4 -0.5 31.9 35.0 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.1 11.7 -0.4 35.0 37.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 12.7 12.9 12.8 -0.5 32.7 35.6 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 10.8 10.9 11.7 -0.5 32.2 35.2 11.0 11.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 12.2 12.2 11.4 -0.6 27.9 32.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 13.4 -0.4 38.0 40.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.0 14.5 -0.5 31.4 34.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.0 12.2 -0.6 28.7 32.8 13.1 13.7 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 13.6 13.7 14.8 -0.8 27.5 30.3 13.9 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.8 11.1 -0.3 37.9 40.1 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 13.2 13.2 15.0 -0.9 26.6 29.4 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 7.6 9.0 -0.3 38.4 40.5 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.6 -0.5 32.0 35.1 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.8 -0.8 28.7 31.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 12.8 12.9 15.0 -0.8 29.4 32.0 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.1 13.2 -0.4 36.4 38.7 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 12.8 12.8 13.9 -0.7 26.7 31.0 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 11.8 11.7 10.8 -0.6 26.0 30.3 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.8 12.8 14.5 -0.8 26.0 29.8 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.1 13.4 -0.5 33.2 36.6 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.2 10.5 -0.3 39.8 41.6 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.1 -0.9 25.8 28.7 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------