***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.2 25.5 25.2 -0.8 39.5 41.7 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.9 24.7 25.0 -1.3 33.8 36.8 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.1 25.3 -0.9 38.8 40.8 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.8 18.7 22.5 -0.4 43.3 44.5 17.8 19.3 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.3 25.6 23.3 -0.7 39.8 41.5 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.0 20.4 -0.9 35.8 37.6 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.5 24.5 25.0 -1.2 35.4 38.5 24.3 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.0 13.6 21.2 -0.7 40.2 41.7 12.9 14.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.0 23.9 -0.7 40.0 41.7 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.4 24.9 22.0 -0.7 40.0 41.7 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.1 25.4 23.4 -0.8 38.9 40.6 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 25.9 24.4 22.5 -0.8 39.4 40.8 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.1 25.1 22.3 -1.1 34.4 36.4 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.4 25.1 23.8 -0.6 42.3 44.2 24.2 25.8 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.5 24.6 -0.6 40.7 42.2 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.7 25.9 22.7 -0.9 36.8 38.5 25.5 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.2 24.3 24.9 -1.1 36.2 39.1 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.4 21.4 -0.6 41.6 43.2 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 26.3 24.2 25.1 -1.3 34.8 37.5 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 19.9 19.1 -0.5 42.0 43.7 19.0 20.7 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.3 24.9 -0.7 41.0 42.7 24.5 26.1 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.6 24.9 24.9 -0.9 38.2 40.6 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.6 24.7 25.2 -1.1 37.0 39.3 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.1 24.6 23.6 -0.6 41.4 43.2 23.8 25.4 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.0 25.4 23.7 -0.8 38.9 41.0 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.7 24.8 21.6 -1.1 35.1 36.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.0 24.4 -0.8 38.6 41.1 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 27.7 26.6 23.3 -0.5 41.9 43.0 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.1 19.6 20.6 -0.5 42.1 43.9 18.6 20.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.6 24.6 25.1 -1.2 35.0 37.8 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------