***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.3 27.1 0.0 50.4 50.2 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.5 26.7 -0.4 44.4 45.6 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.4 27.5 0.2 53.2 52.4 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 18.4 20.6 25.3 0.4 56.1 53.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.6 27.8 25.5 0.3 54.0 52.6 25.9 27.5 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.0 22.8 -0.1 48.9 48.9 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.4 26.3 26.7 -0.4 44.7 45.9 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.2 24.1 0.5 56.5 54.3 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 27.7 27.4 25.7 0.3 54.6 53.3 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 25.0 27.4 24.5 0.5 56.8 54.7 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.3 27.4 25.4 0.3 53.4 52.2 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.6 25.5 0.3 54.0 52.5 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.9 27.2 24.2 -0.1 48.9 48.6 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 27.7 27.6 25.5 0.5 57.0 54.9 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 26.5 28.3 26.3 0.1 51.5 49.9 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.0 24.9 0.1 51.8 50.9 26.3 27.9 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 27.0 26.0 26.6 -0.3 45.7 46.5 24.9 26.4 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 24.3 27.0 24.0 0.7 59.7 56.8 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.2 26.3 27.0 -0.3 46.7 47.3 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.9 21.6 0.7 59.8 56.9 20.3 22.0 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 25.4 27.6 26.7 0.4 55.5 54.0 25.6 27.1 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.7 26.6 -0.1 48.3 48.5 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.9 27.2 0.0 50.3 50.1 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.2 27.3 25.6 0.6 58.1 55.7 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.4 25.4 0.1 51.9 51.0 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.4 26.8 24.8 0.0 49.5 48.8 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.8 26.1 0.0 50.2 49.9 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 26.5 28.6 25.6 0.3 54.4 52.5 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.2 22.4 23.0 0.7 59.7 56.8 19.8 21.5 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.5 26.9 -0.3 46.0 46.9 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------