***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.5 24.3 24.5 112.8 67.2 54.6 9.0 15.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.0 21.5 19.0 110.0 66.3 55.2 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.9 26.5 21.3 102.7 63.2 51.6 10.2 18.1 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 10.4 30.2 30.0 121.3 69.5 54.5 10.7 18.1 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.7 21.5 27.2 114.7 67.2 54.5 8.9 14.2 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.0 21.5 30.9 120.7 69.4 58.1 7.7 12.9 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.0 19.1 18.5 105.7 65.1 54.2 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.7 29.3 29.8 103.1 61.5 51.8 17.9 24.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 9.3 20.3 26.1 105.7 63.7 52.3 9.1 14.6 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.8 19.6 30.8 105.8 63.1 52.5 9.5 14.6 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.6 18.1 25.2 107.5 64.6 51.7 7.5 12.5 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.0 16.7 24.9 105.3 63.3 52.3 7.3 12.0 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.7 19.6 25.1 114.6 67.4 54.0 6.5 11.9 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.9 31.1 25.8 99.6 61.5 51.1 14.5 23.5 34.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 23.2 26.9 29.9 146.5 76.7 55.6 5.8 11.5 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.3 17.6 25.1 113.6 67.0 54.0 6.2 10.9 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.5 24.2 16.6 98.0 62.0 52.8 8.9 16.6 27.4 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 13.8 25.4 31.4 103.4 61.8 52.4 13.7 20.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 20.5 24.8 19.0 105.5 64.5 53.8 7.4 15.1 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 18.9 31.9 103.4 61.3 53.6 8.8 14.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.3 22.1 24.5 106.5 64.4 52.2 9.1 15.3 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.4 15.1 85.4 57.6 49.1 7.5 15.0 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 19.1 20.2 19.2 97.8 61.4 51.2 8.3 14.6 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.2 24.9 25.2 100.2 61.4 50.3 11.2 18.5 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.5 27.2 29.7 123.5 70.7 58.2 9.4 15.9 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.4 14.5 21.1 101.3 61.9 51.3 5.2 9.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.7 24.6 27.3 119.6 69.4 57.5 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 6.0 19.8 29.4 124.4 70.6 54.4 6.4 11.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.3 26.3 30.0 101.4 60.5 51.4 14.5 21.2 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 18.6 22.8 19.8 109.3 66.0 54.4 8.4 14.6 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------