***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 18.4 24.3 20.3 110.2 66.9 55.6 6.5 13.5 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 18.7 24.8 18.4 114.1 68.0 55.6 7.9 14.5 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 21.4 28.7 20.8 112.7 67.4 57.7 9.8 17.3 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.4 24.8 22.0 103.9 64.7 56.0 8.0 15.3 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.6 22.1 22.5 116.5 68.7 60.0 7.9 13.6 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 18.1 21.8 25.6 106.1 64.1 57.3 8.6 14.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.8 20.6 19.0 118.0 69.2 56.1 7.3 12.4 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 28.7 28.4 23.8 117.0 68.7 61.0 10.8 17.7 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 25.3 24.6 23.8 117.6 69.0 60.2 7.7 14.0 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 26.1 26.1 25.2 119.5 69.7 61.7 7.8 14.4 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.3 19.6 22.0 111.8 66.7 59.5 7.4 12.7 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.7 16.7 19.9 108.6 66.0 58.3 5.0 9.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.2 17.4 22.7 109.5 65.9 58.7 5.1 10.2 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.7 24.8 23.7 117.1 68.6 58.7 8.3 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.8 20.4 106.1 65.7 56.2 3.9 9.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.5 14.4 21.6 105.9 64.7 57.9 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.9 21.6 18.0 116.7 69.0 57.0 6.4 12.1 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 24.8 24.3 26.5 117.5 68.6 61.3 9.4 15.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 20.3 25.7 18.5 111.4 67.2 55.2 8.7 15.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 23.8 25.2 27.7 124.1 70.6 62.4 7.9 13.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.7 22.0 21.9 115.0 68.2 58.8 7.8 13.4 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.9 24.3 18.7 115.9 68.7 56.5 9.0 15.0 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.9 20.4 18.6 108.1 66.0 54.8 7.7 13.3 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 29.1 27.1 23.9 113.6 67.2 59.7 8.8 16.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.9 21.0 24.1 112.9 67.1 56.5 6.3 12.2 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.8 16.2 22.5 119.5 69.2 61.5 3.7 7.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.7 20.9 22.6 110.3 66.4 55.8 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 20.6 18.8 21.9 108.8 66.7 58.4 6.0 11.1 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 30.8 30.4 28.2 117.7 68.4 61.2 11.1 18.7 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.7 26.9 19.3 113.7 67.8 56.2 11.9 18.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------