***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.2 17.7 16.2 102.2 65.2 52.6 5.5 10.7 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 22.0 16.3 111.3 68.2 53.9 6.3 12.1 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.5 23.6 17.2 104.1 65.9 54.0 5.8 12.9 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.5 21.4 15.4 103.1 65.7 51.9 5.6 12.0 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.6 21.8 15.0 105.1 66.3 52.4 5.9 12.1 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.2 16.5 17.0 102.4 64.1 53.5 4.9 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.9 22.0 15.9 107.6 67.3 53.0 6.4 12.4 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 24.5 30.9 18.4 109.5 66.8 54.8 10.8 19.1 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.4 20.2 16.2 104.3 65.7 53.5 6.5 12.2 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.5 29.4 18.7 106.2 65.9 54.7 10.1 18.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.6 19.5 13.1 102.9 65.3 52.1 5.8 11.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.7 14.1 101.2 64.8 51.2 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.0 13.4 90.9 61.6 49.7 5.1 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 23.0 27.2 20.1 98.8 63.1 52.7 10.0 18.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.2 13.0 109.0 68.0 53.0 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.1 13.8 12.8 92.9 62.2 50.4 5.2 9.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.6 18.0 15.4 106.2 67.2 53.3 5.0 10.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 20.9 21.2 102.9 64.4 55.0 8.0 14.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.9 23.7 16.6 109.5 67.6 54.4 6.4 12.9 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 21.0 20.8 107.9 65.3 56.1 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.2 17.6 15.8 102.1 65.2 52.9 6.1 11.1 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.4 13.3 16.6 106.2 66.7 54.1 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.1 18.8 16.2 102.2 65.3 53.5 5.5 11.0 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.4 30.8 19.4 100.5 63.9 53.6 12.6 21.2 32.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.6 21.1 17.0 101.8 65.0 52.7 6.5 12.8 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.3 17.5 12.1 97.9 64.1 49.3 5.1 10.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.9 21.1 17.0 100.3 64.6 52.1 7.2 13.2 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.4 16.0 14.6 105.1 66.4 53.0 5.0 9.5 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.4 29.2 22.7 108.4 65.9 56.5 10.9 18.7 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.7 20.8 16.1 106.0 66.4 52.9 5.8 11.8 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------