***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.9 81.5 57.1 45.9 4.5 8.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.7 9.6 69.8 52.4 41.2 5.2 9.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.5 13.9 11.2 77.1 55.2 44.5 6.0 11.7 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.9 11.3 77.4 55.9 45.4 3.6 7.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.8 10.8 75.0 54.9 43.3 4.0 8.9 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.2 12.5 71.4 51.8 42.2 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.5 10.4 9.6 71.7 53.4 40.8 4.4 9.0 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.6 12.7 72.5 52.1 42.3 5.3 10.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.8 11.7 75.0 54.6 43.4 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.9 9.9 13.4 72.1 51.9 42.5 3.9 9.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.8 9.8 72.6 53.5 41.9 2.9 6.8 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.2 9.5 68.9 52.1 40.3 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.3 8.6 59.8 48.7 38.4 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 14.0 14.4 75.7 53.2 44.0 6.4 12.6 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.4 9.8 82.4 59.3 45.3 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.1 9.5 69.1 52.2 40.7 2.7 5.5 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.8 10.8 9.3 72.6 53.9 39.4 4.6 9.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 8.7 15.2 72.9 51.5 42.6 3.5 8.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.1 10.9 10.0 71.0 52.8 42.2 4.8 9.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 8.5 14.2 70.6 49.1 41.6 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.5 11.5 77.6 56.1 44.8 4.1 9.2 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.2 10.1 75.0 54.7 40.7 4.9 10.2 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.1 10.4 73.6 53.6 43.1 5.5 10.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.0 15.3 13.7 76.5 54.1 44.6 7.0 13.4 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.3 12.6 13.8 86.1 59.4 47.1 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.8 6.6 57.1 47.9 38.9 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.8 13.3 83.9 58.3 46.3 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.4 10.5 76.6 55.8 44.7 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 14.2 15.4 71.8 50.1 41.8 7.3 14.2 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.0 13.2 9.9 70.7 52.9 42.5 6.6 12.0 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------