***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 75.9 79.2 72.9 103.3 59.8 54.4 51.6 68.3 87.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 79.6 81.3 63.3 102.5 59.7 54.2 58.7 72.5 87.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 97.2 97.0 70.4 100.4 57.9 52.7 66.7 86.8 108.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 86.7 91.2 78.7 104.4 60.6 55.3 59.6 78.3 98.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 76.1 80.7 75.6 105.3 61.1 55.7 54.0 69.4 86.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 67.1 68.3 86.0 102.5 58.7 55.0 46.0 60.4 76.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 72.4 74.7 63.0 102.0 59.6 53.8 48.9 64.6 82.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 101.0 101.3 84.7 101.4 57.8 53.1 75.4 92.9 111.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 73.9 75.4 77.8 102.3 58.8 53.9 53.6 67.6 82.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 87.1 88.8 88.1 101.9 58.3 54.0 60.8 79.1 98.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 66.8 68.5 70.1 100.9 58.0 53.5 47.9 61.5 76.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 56.6 55.2 68.4 98.3 56.2 51.3 34.9 49.4 66.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 62.4 60.0 69.8 97.2 55.7 51.4 41.3 55.1 70.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 102.7 100.5 84.0 98.2 55.5 51.4 75.0 94.2 114.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 69.3 65.6 73.1 115.0 66.9 60.2 31.3 46.3 64.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 54.3 53.7 69.0 98.5 56.4 52.4 36.7 48.7 62.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 76.9 76.5 59.3 99.3 58.0 52.7 48.2 66.5 88.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 82.0 81.8 94.3 99.8 56.3 52.8 59.3 75.4 92.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 90.0 89.8 64.1 100.4 58.2 53.0 62.9 80.2 99.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 74.5 74.8 94.6 102.2 57.7 53.5 53.3 67.5 83.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 74.6 76.1 73.8 101.9 58.8 53.4 51.6 67.0 84.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 75.7 72.9 60.5 96.1 55.9 51.5 48.3 66.1 86.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 78.5 76.6 64.5 96.4 55.1 50.2 59.1 72.1 86.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 101.9 101.3 82.2 98.6 55.8 52.1 76.2 94.9 114.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 76.4 83.4 84.7 108.3 63.0 57.3 49.5 67.6 87.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 57.9 56.8 62.3 98.1 56.5 52.1 34.8 50.3 67.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 77.7 83.1 80.3 105.3 61.1 55.8 52.2 69.7 89.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 56.0 59.8 76.4 107.0 62.1 57.2 40.0 51.0 63.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 102.8 102.4 96.3 100.3 56.3 52.6 78.1 95.4 114.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 84.0 85.1 65.1 101.3 58.8 53.3 59.9 76.0 93.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------