***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.1 14.9 0.2 53.1 52.9 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.3 14.7 0.1 52.0 51.8 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 15.0 14.6 14.7 -0.1 48.2 48.5 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.7 12.4 0.0 49.4 49.4 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.3 12.4 -0.3 44.1 44.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 10.7 10.7 10.4 0.2 54.2 53.9 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.5 14.9 0.2 54.3 54.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.3 10.3 0.1 52.2 52.2 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.6 13.0 -0.1 48.3 48.8 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.6 11.3 0.0 49.5 49.8 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.2 12.0 -0.1 48.4 48.8 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.6 11.2 0.1 52.8 52.7 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.6 10.9 -0.3 42.9 44.1 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.0 12.7 -0.2 45.3 45.9 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.4 14.1 -0.1 46.9 47.2 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.4 11.6 -0.2 44.7 45.6 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 13.7 13.5 14.3 0.1 50.9 50.9 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.2 10.4 -0.1 47.7 48.2 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.2 14.5 0.0 49.1 49.2 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 7.2 7.0 8.2 -0.1 48.1 48.5 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.7 14.4 0.0 50.6 50.7 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 13.1 12.7 14.2 -0.2 46.6 47.0 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 13.0 12.6 14.2 -0.2 47.0 47.3 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.4 12.6 -0.2 46.1 46.7 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.7 13.8 -0.1 48.5 48.8 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.1 10.1 -0.4 41.3 42.3 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.0 14.2 0.0 50.9 50.8 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.7 13.0 0.0 51.0 50.8 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 9.9 9.6 9.7 0.0 49.1 49.4 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 13.7 13.6 14.9 0.1 52.6 52.4 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------