***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.3 16.1 -0.4 41.6 42.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.0 16.3 -0.2 45.8 46.4 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.2 15.9 -0.5 39.6 41.5 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.8 14.0 -0.2 45.1 46.1 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.5 13.7 -0.3 43.2 44.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.4 11.7 -0.3 44.0 44.4 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.4 16.4 -0.1 48.7 48.7 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.2 11.8 -0.2 45.9 46.5 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.3 13.9 -0.5 40.3 42.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.2 12.4 -0.4 42.1 43.6 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.3 13.3 -0.2 46.7 47.1 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.5 12.8 -0.1 48.4 48.4 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.1 12.9 12.2 -0.2 44.6 45.0 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.9 14.0 -0.4 40.7 42.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.6 14.9 -0.1 48.4 48.6 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.8 13.0 -0.1 48.0 48.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.5 15.9 -0.2 45.3 46.0 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.0 11.8 -0.3 43.5 45.0 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.9 16.1 -0.4 42.8 44.1 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.7 9.9 -0.2 44.8 45.7 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.2 15.1 -0.5 39.3 41.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.4 15.7 -0.4 41.6 43.2 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.3 15.6 -0.5 39.9 41.9 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.3 13.8 -0.4 41.2 43.2 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.5 14.5 -0.4 41.6 43.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.5 12.5 0.0 50.4 50.0 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.7 15.3 -0.3 43.9 44.8 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.8 14.5 0.0 49.6 49.5 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.2 11.2 -0.2 45.5 46.5 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.3 16.4 -0.3 44.9 45.7 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------