***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.6 18.3 0.8 64.8 61.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.8 18.6 1.0 66.4 62.1 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.3 18.2 0.7 62.1 59.0 15.6 16.6 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.5 16.1 0.6 61.9 57.7 10.5 11.7 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.8 15.8 0.6 62.1 58.1 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.7 13.7 0.5 60.7 57.0 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.8 18.6 1.1 67.5 62.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.4 13.8 0.6 63.6 59.7 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.2 16.1 0.7 62.6 58.7 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.0 14.5 0.6 62.4 58.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.9 15.3 0.6 62.5 58.2 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.9 15.0 0.7 64.8 60.1 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.1 14.3 0.6 62.5 58.3 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.8 16.1 0.6 60.6 58.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.1 16.9 0.7 62.5 58.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.1 15.1 0.6 62.4 58.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.2 18.2 0.9 65.7 61.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.7 13.9 0.6 62.4 59.0 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.5 18.5 0.9 64.9 61.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.4 11.8 0.5 59.6 57.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.0 17.4 0.7 62.9 59.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.1 18.0 0.8 63.0 59.4 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.9 18.0 0.7 62.9 59.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.3 16.0 0.6 61.4 58.2 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.9 16.6 0.7 63.7 59.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.9 14.5 0.7 63.4 58.9 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.5 15.0 17.4 0.9 65.7 61.3 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 16.5 0.7 62.7 58.2 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.3 13.1 0.6 62.2 58.9 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.9 18.7 0.9 65.8 61.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------