***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.4 16.7 0.2 56.1 55.2 13.8 14.3 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 16.8 0.3 58.5 57.1 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.8 16.5 0.0 51.4 51.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.1 14.5 0.2 55.5 54.2 10.2 10.9 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 14.2 0.1 52.7 51.9 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.7 12.2 0.2 56.2 54.4 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.6 16.9 0.4 61.1 59.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.7 12.2 0.2 57.7 55.9 5.9 6.4 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 14.6 0.1 52.7 52.1 13.3 13.7 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.7 13.0 0.1 53.6 52.9 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.6 13.8 0.2 56.6 54.7 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.8 13.3 0.3 61.1 58.1 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.1 12.8 0.1 55.3 53.4 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.3 14.5 0.0 49.9 49.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.9 15.5 0.2 56.9 55.4 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 13.5 0.2 56.8 54.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.8 16.4 0.3 57.2 56.0 14.0 14.5 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.4 12.3 0.1 53.3 52.8 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.2 16.6 0.2 55.1 54.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.1 10.2 0.1 53.1 52.4 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 15.9 0.1 53.0 52.4 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.8 16.2 0.1 52.7 52.3 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.7 16.2 0.1 51.7 51.4 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.8 14.3 0.0 50.9 50.7 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 15.2 0.1 53.8 53.3 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.7 12.7 0.2 58.1 55.8 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.9 15.9 0.2 57.0 55.9 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.9 14.9 0.3 59.4 57.0 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.8 11.6 0.1 54.8 53.8 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.6 16.9 0.3 57.8 56.6 13.8 14.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------