***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.5 25.4 0.8 62.1 60.9 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 25.3 26.2 25.7 1.0 63.1 61.9 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 25.3 25.6 25.1 0.6 58.3 57.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 18.0 18.2 22.6 0.5 58.3 57.5 16.4 17.6 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.7 23.1 0.2 53.7 53.4 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.4 23.8 20.4 -0.2 47.2 48.3 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 26.1 26.1 25.8 1.2 65.9 64.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.3 20.7 0.0 49.6 50.1 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.1 24.1 0.3 54.9 54.3 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.7 21.9 0.0 50.1 50.4 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.5 22.8 0.2 53.1 53.0 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.5 24.5 22.0 0.3 55.1 54.8 23.0 24.2 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.6 22.2 0.2 53.1 53.2 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 25.2 25.1 23.3 0.3 53.7 53.2 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.5 25.3 0.8 64.6 62.9 24.5 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.2 22.6 0.3 54.4 54.3 24.8 25.9 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 24.9 25.6 25.2 0.9 61.5 60.5 23.0 24.6 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.5 23.8 20.7 -0.2 46.7 47.4 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 24.9 25.5 25.4 0.8 60.4 59.4 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.1 19.2 18.3 -0.5 43.4 45.0 18.4 19.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.5 25.0 0.5 57.3 56.4 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 25.4 25.8 24.8 0.7 58.4 57.6 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.6 24.8 0.6 58.1 57.2 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.8 24.5 23.1 0.1 51.5 51.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.8 24.1 0.7 60.6 59.4 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.3 21.4 0.4 56.2 55.6 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.8 24.8 0.9 63.4 61.9 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.3 23.7 0.6 59.8 58.9 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.8 19.0 19.8 -0.3 45.2 46.2 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 25.2 26.0 25.8 1.0 63.6 62.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------