***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.2 26.7 26.8 0.2 52.2 52.0 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.4 27.0 0.2 52.5 52.2 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.7 25.9 26.6 -0.1 48.1 48.9 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.0 19.8 25.1 0.3 54.9 53.7 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.8 24.9 0.1 52.0 51.6 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.5 22.8 0.3 54.7 53.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.2 27.2 0.4 55.1 54.2 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.8 23.2 0.2 53.2 52.7 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.8 25.1 0.0 49.6 49.8 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.8 23.8 0.0 49.9 50.2 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.7 24.4 0.3 53.7 52.9 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.8 24.4 0.4 56.2 54.9 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.9 23.7 0.3 54.9 53.8 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.5 25.5 24.6 -0.3 46.2 47.6 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.9 25.8 0.6 58.7 56.5 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.4 24.3 0.3 54.5 53.4 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.8 26.7 0.2 52.5 52.1 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.0 23.0 -0.1 48.2 48.8 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 26.2 25.6 26.8 0.0 50.1 50.4 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.8 21.0 0.0 50.3 50.4 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.1 26.0 0.0 49.8 50.0 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.9 26.3 0.0 49.3 49.8 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.5 25.7 26.3 -0.2 47.7 48.6 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.1 24.6 -0.3 46.5 47.7 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.8 25.2 0.3 53.8 53.1 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.8 23.9 0.6 58.3 56.5 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.3 26.0 0.3 54.1 53.5 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.8 25.4 0.5 56.5 54.7 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.2 22.0 -0.1 48.2 48.9 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.1 27.1 0.1 52.1 51.9 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------