***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.7 28.1 0.9 63.3 58.2 25.7 26.8 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.7 27.2 28.3 1.0 62.7 58.5 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.7 27.0 28.0 0.8 60.5 56.2 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.6 20.3 26.4 0.9 64.1 58.6 18.0 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.5 26.2 0.8 62.7 57.3 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.1 24.1 0.9 64.3 58.8 23.8 25.1 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.5 27.2 28.4 1.1 64.4 59.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.7 24.6 0.9 63.7 58.0 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.0 26.5 0.8 61.7 56.7 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.8 25.1 0.8 61.7 56.7 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.4 25.8 0.9 64.2 58.4 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.9 26.6 25.8 1.1 66.2 59.7 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.5 25.1 0.9 64.3 58.5 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.6 25.9 0.6 58.8 55.3 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 27.5 28.4 27.1 1.1 66.6 61.1 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 27.6 28.2 25.6 0.9 64.3 58.5 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.5 28.0 0.9 61.3 57.7 24.2 25.6 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.1 24.4 0.7 60.4 55.7 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.6 28.2 0.9 61.6 57.6 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.6 22.3 0.7 60.0 55.6 19.5 20.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.1 27.4 0.8 61.8 56.9 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.7 27.6 0.7 58.9 55.9 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.9 27.7 0.8 60.7 56.7 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.2 26.3 26.0 0.7 59.5 55.2 24.3 25.6 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.4 26.4 0.9 63.8 58.2 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 26.4 27.0 25.3 1.0 65.2 59.5 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.9 27.2 1.0 64.3 58.8 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 27.5 28.3 26.8 1.1 65.7 60.1 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.2 21.3 23.4 0.7 59.8 55.3 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.5 27.0 28.4 1.0 62.8 58.3 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------