***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 29.1 28.7 29.0 1.2 64.5 61.6 26.2 27.5 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 28.9 28.4 29.4 1.3 65.2 62.0 25.7 27.2 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.2 28.9 0.9 61.1 59.1 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 18.6 21.1 27.1 0.8 60.5 58.0 18.8 20.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 28.4 28.6 27.0 0.8 59.9 57.8 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.1 24.6 0.6 58.0 55.9 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 28.7 28.3 29.4 1.4 66.7 63.1 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.1 16.7 25.2 0.8 60.2 57.5 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.1 27.2 0.8 60.1 58.0 25.7 27.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.9 25.8 0.8 59.5 57.3 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.2 26.5 0.8 60.7 58.1 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.4 26.4 0.9 61.8 58.6 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 28.2 28.3 25.8 0.7 59.3 57.1 26.0 27.5 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.9 26.7 0.7 58.0 56.5 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 29.7 29.2 27.7 0.9 62.5 58.9 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.9 26.3 0.7 59.4 57.2 26.5 28.1 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 28.1 27.7 29.0 1.2 64.3 61.3 25.2 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 27.0 27.1 25.0 0.7 58.5 56.7 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 28.4 27.9 29.2 1.2 63.7 60.9 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.8 22.9 0.6 57.1 55.7 20.6 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.0 28.3 28.2 0.9 61.1 58.9 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.7 28.1 28.6 1.0 61.4 59.0 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 28.6 28.0 28.7 1.0 61.7 59.4 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.5 26.7 0.7 58.6 56.9 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 29.1 28.6 27.2 1.0 63.2 60.3 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.7 28.0 26.0 0.8 60.5 57.9 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 28.6 28.2 28.1 1.2 65.2 61.9 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 26.9 29.3 27.4 0.8 60.6 57.9 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.5 22.5 24.0 0.6 57.6 56.0 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 28.8 28.3 29.4 1.3 64.9 61.9 25.6 27.1 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------