***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 26.6 27.1 27.3 0.8 65.7 62.4 25.5 26.3 27.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 26.9 26.9 27.6 0.9 65.7 63.0 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.6 27.1 0.5 60.6 58.4 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 19.4 19.7 25.3 0.6 64.4 60.2 18.4 19.1 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.1 25.3 0.5 61.2 57.5 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.6 23.0 0.4 60.0 56.2 24.4 25.1 25.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.7 27.7 1.0 68.5 65.2 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.0 23.5 0.5 61.0 56.6 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.5 25.7 0.5 60.4 57.1 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.2 24.1 0.4 58.7 55.4 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.9 24.9 0.6 62.8 58.0 25.5 26.3 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.6 26.0 24.7 0.7 65.8 59.9 24.6 25.3 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 26.7 27.0 24.2 0.5 62.7 57.9 25.7 26.4 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.2 25.1 0.3 56.6 55.1 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.9 26.4 0.9 69.0 64.0 26.4 27.1 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 27.3 27.6 24.7 0.6 63.0 58.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 26.4 26.3 27.2 0.8 64.3 61.9 24.7 25.6 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.5 23.3 0.3 55.8 53.5 24.5 25.2 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 25.9 26.3 27.4 0.7 63.2 60.9 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.1 21.1 0.2 54.6 52.5 20.1 20.9 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.7 26.6 0.5 61.6 58.5 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.6 26.8 0.6 60.4 58.7 25.1 26.0 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.5 26.9 0.6 60.7 58.7 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.8 25.1 0.3 56.5 54.6 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.0 25.7 0.7 65.8 61.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.6 24.1 0.7 65.6 60.8 25.3 26.0 26.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.7 26.5 0.8 67.5 63.6 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 27.4 27.8 25.8 0.7 65.9 61.3 26.4 27.1 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.7 22.3 0.2 54.6 52.7 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 26.8 26.7 27.7 0.9 65.7 62.9 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------