***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 7.0 7.7 8.7 43.0 28.7 24.1 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 5.7 8.1 8.8 50.4 33.8 26.2 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 8.2 11.7 10.8 57.3 36.1 27.4 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 6.2 6.7 11.0 46.3 29.3 24.9 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 7.3 8.8 12.0 53.3 33.0 27.9 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 7.2 8.7 12.6 58.8 35.9 32.0 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 4.8 5.8 8.0 42.5 28.4 23.7 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 15.7 21.3 16.2 69.2 43.9 37.1 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 9.7 11.9 12.5 57.8 38.0 31.6 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 8.7 12.1 16.1 65.2 41.7 34.8 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 7.2 9.1 10.7 53.9 35.0 29.4 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 7.3 9.8 12.1 60.2 39.4 33.7 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 5.9 7.1 11.5 56.6 35.1 30.5 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 12.5 20.9 14.7 69.4 45.3 34.2 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 3.4 2.7 7.5 33.5 21.0 18.5 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 5.0 6.0 10.9 53.9 33.1 28.6 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 6.3 8.1 8.3 45.5 30.4 24.0 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 14.5 21.2 19.4 75.9 48.0 38.1 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 5.5 9.8 10.0 58.7 38.5 28.1 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.9 16.1 22.8 88.3 52.1 42.9 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 7.5 9.6 10.9 52.9 35.1 28.6 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 5.3 7.7 9.2 52.8 33.7 25.5 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 6.0 11.6 11.2 65.1 43.1 30.4 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 12.8 19.5 15.0 67.8 43.6 33.2 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 7.8 8.0 10.6 43.1 27.4 24.3 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 4.5 5.6 12.6 59.8 35.5 32.2 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 5.8 5.8 9.8 41.6 27.2 23.9 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 5.3 5.5 9.8 43.6 27.2 23.5 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 13.1 21.9 20.0 81.3 50.3 39.1 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 6.1 8.9 9.0 51.5 33.7 26.1 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------