***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.0 17.8 11.1 82.8 60.2 44.2 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.4 21.2 11.2 80.1 59.3 46.3 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.9 20.7 10.4 80.5 58.4 45.6 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.0 24.1 15.6 93.4 62.0 49.0 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.7 18.0 15.5 94.7 61.7 48.2 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.2 21.3 89.7 57.7 46.8 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.0 16.8 11.5 80.5 59.0 46.0 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.7 28.4 20.1 114.3 68.0 53.2 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.5 15.6 13.9 85.5 58.8 44.8 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.3 20.3 18.8 99.7 63.2 50.1 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.3 19.6 15.2 111.7 67.4 50.8 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.8 18.1 14.9 117.4 69.1 51.9 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.1 16.3 104.0 63.8 49.1 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.1 14.4 89.1 59.2 46.2 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 11.6 13.2 81.9 58.1 44.1 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.7 15.4 105.2 64.7 50.2 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 8.9 18.2 9.8 70.4 55.7 42.0 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.9 20.1 96.4 61.6 50.2 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.7 22.6 10.5 80.3 59.1 45.7 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 21.7 23.3 111.8 66.9 55.2 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.5 17.4 10.8 80.4 57.9 43.8 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.4 19.9 10.3 78.2 57.5 43.0 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.7 16.9 10.1 82.1 58.6 45.0 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 20.0 20.6 15.1 90.7 60.3 48.1 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.9 18.5 14.8 91.0 61.3 47.6 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.3 18.0 14.1 118.4 69.1 52.2 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.8 14.0 89.5 61.4 46.0 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.9 14.1 86.0 59.5 46.6 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.1 27.6 20.3 103.1 64.2 52.0 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.7 23.8 11.5 82.0 59.8 46.9 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------