***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.4 16.2 11.8 90.3 61.2 45.6 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.3 18.8 12.1 87.1 60.3 46.5 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.6 18.3 12.1 85.8 59.9 46.8 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.2 21.7 14.9 110.2 67.8 53.4 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.5 21.2 15.6 103.5 66.3 51.1 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.5 21.0 22.3 111.8 68.0 55.4 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.4 19.0 12.3 90.5 61.3 46.5 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 28.4 18.0 109.3 66.7 52.4 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.5 18.1 14.7 86.7 61.3 46.3 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 27.0 18.5 97.4 63.3 49.5 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.0 21.4 14.9 116.3 69.7 52.6 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.8 16.1 13.7 117.1 69.9 53.0 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.7 18.0 16.2 111.1 67.9 53.0 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.3 26.1 17.1 86.1 59.7 47.4 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.3 11.3 98.9 64.4 50.8 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.0 18.2 15.5 119.2 70.2 53.3 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.3 11.6 11.4 84.0 59.2 44.9 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.2 18.7 20.5 94.5 61.2 48.9 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 7.0 19.4 11.9 84.8 59.6 46.2 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 18.1 20.1 96.2 60.8 48.2 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.7 15.9 11.6 85.2 60.3 45.2 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.6 14.8 12.8 95.3 62.9 47.1 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.1 15.1 12.1 82.5 59.2 45.4 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 11.9 27.4 17.1 88.4 60.2 48.2 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.5 13.5 91.1 61.3 48.4 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.8 17.3 12.1 110.6 67.6 53.4 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.5 19.9 13.6 88.5 60.0 45.8 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.9 17.2 14.4 112.0 68.6 53.5 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.7 23.1 19.7 92.8 60.3 47.6 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 6.8 18.2 12.4 89.4 60.9 46.7 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------