***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.0 9.6 5.8 62.0 50.7 35.6 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.7 12.7 6.8 72.2 55.7 39.2 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 6.7 16.0 7.6 74.2 56.3 38.7 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.6 11.0 94.3 63.8 43.8 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.3 11.4 88.7 61.9 41.1 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.0 12.6 76.5 58.3 43.7 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.8 11.2 6.5 67.7 54.2 39.6 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.6 15.3 12.1 84.7 60.2 43.6 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.6 11.6 87.6 61.6 40.0 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.3 13.2 85.9 60.7 42.1 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.2 9.0 80.6 59.7 42.6 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.7 8.2 77.4 58.5 42.4 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.6 7.0 9.1 75.6 58.5 43.9 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.7 22.3 13.2 92.2 63.1 43.6 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.1 8.5 95.5 64.4 45.3 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.1 8.7 79.7 60.2 45.2 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.5 6.8 76.6 56.6 39.9 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 14.6 15.9 88.7 62.1 43.8 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 6.3 13.6 7.2 77.2 57.8 39.5 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.6 15.9 91.4 62.6 46.9 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.2 14.4 9.0 82.5 59.6 37.8 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.5 14.6 7.4 84.9 59.8 41.5 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 6.5 19.1 8.4 84.4 61.2 40.3 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.0 23.0 13.0 86.7 61.3 41.7 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.7 13.8 10.5 89.3 61.8 42.9 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.7 7.7 81.4 60.5 46.8 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 12.0 8.2 70.8 55.2 40.7 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.9 9.2 86.1 61.8 43.8 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 19.9 15.4 85.1 60.2 43.0 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.7 15.0 6.5 68.4 54.5 38.6 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------