***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 47.5 51.2 37.4 66.7 30.9 31.2 53.2 70.1 88.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 56.6 65.2 38.9 71.1 38.3 34.8 61.0 74.4 89.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 63.2 72.3 40.8 72.9 36.2 34.4 68.9 88.5 109.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 48.3 62.5 52.6 79.9 40.7 36.4 53.6 74.2 97.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 45.2 57.3 54.5 81.5 42.8 37.8 47.4 64.9 85.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 42.0 53.9 68.9 84.2 44.6 40.7 44.4 58.9 74.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 45.3 52.3 38.3 68.0 34.7 33.2 50.8 66.2 82.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 100.7 92.5 66.3 92.4 50.7 46.0 74.0 91.6 110.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 43.2 53.5 52.7 77.4 40.5 36.7 46.0 63.3 83.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 58.6 73.3 66.6 85.4 45.9 42.0 59.7 78.0 98.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 40.6 54.3 49.8 86.6 46.4 40.8 42.1 58.0 76.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 35.2 48.1 49.0 88.6 48.0 43.1 35.7 50.1 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 37.2 49.9 53.0 84.6 45.3 40.4 40.5 53.8 68.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 73.1 91.0 59.4 83.0 45.6 40.3 78.2 95.7 114.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 24.8 27.7 40.5 68.7 32.0 31.4 28.6 44.2 63.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 32.5 43.4 50.4 85.8 45.7 40.5 34.5 46.5 60.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 42.9 49.6 36.3 66.5 34.0 31.8 48.6 67.3 88.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 55.8 73.2 76.0 88.2 48.4 43.9 57.9 74.9 93.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 62.0 72.9 39.5 74.1 40.2 35.7 66.3 82.4 100.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 51.8 70.8 82.1 96.6 53.7 48.4 52.9 67.5 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 48.6 55.3 42.3 72.1 35.4 33.5 52.9 68.7 86.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 47.1 57.8 39.7 75.2 40.0 35.4 51.2 68.4 87.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 60.5 70.7 41.8 77.2 43.1 37.6 62.8 75.8 89.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 77.9 93.0 60.2 82.2 45.0 40.8 80.4 98.3 117.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 45.3 53.4 49.5 73.2 35.7 34.0 50.9 68.7 88.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 34.8 47.9 46.4 86.9 47.3 42.3 35.7 50.5 67.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 48.9 54.3 45.6 69.0 33.0 32.5 54.3 72.4 92.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 30.8 37.3 47.4 76.0 38.0 35.2 33.6 47.0 62.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 75.8 94.9 75.5 90.2 49.3 44.4 77.7 95.7 115.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 58.6 67.6 39.5 71.8 37.3 34.7 63.8 78.8 94.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------