***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 11.4 11.2 12.5 -1.9 17.5 20.0 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 11.4 11.3 12.6 -1.8 20.7 23.1 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 12.8 12.5 12.6 -2.0 16.7 19.0 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 7.6 6.8 9.6 -2.2 11.1 14.2 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 10.0 9.5 10.4 -2.1 12.8 15.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 9.2 8.6 7.6 -2.1 8.6 11.5 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.6 -1.7 21.4 24.1 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 3.5 3.0 7.5 -2.2 10.2 12.2 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 11.1 10.6 10.4 -2.3 10.4 12.4 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 11.0 10.6 8.5 -2.2 10.6 12.7 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 10.7 10.1 9.9 -2.3 9.8 11.8 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 9.1 8.6 8.5 -2.2 9.9 12.1 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 10.3 9.7 9.0 -2.1 8.7 11.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 11.6 11.4 10.7 -1.8 17.7 20.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 12.0 11.2 11.5 -2.3 7.3 10.7 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 11.0 10.4 9.5 -2.2 9.2 11.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 12.0 12.0 12.5 -1.6 22.9 25.3 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 9.6 9.3 8.1 -2.0 13.6 15.9 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.4 -2.0 18.9 21.0 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 5.7 5.5 6.1 -2.0 13.1 15.3 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 11.0 10.6 11.7 -2.1 12.5 14.6 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 11.4 11.4 12.7 -1.6 23.4 25.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 10.8 10.6 12.1 -2.3 15.2 17.1 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 10.9 10.7 10.5 -1.9 15.6 18.0 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 11.1 10.7 11.4 -2.1 13.5 16.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 10.1 9.7 8.0 -1.9 12.1 15.2 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 11.1 10.9 12.1 -1.8 18.1 21.0 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 10.1 9.4 10.2 -2.2 9.1 12.7 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 7.8 7.4 7.2 -2.1 12.0 13.9 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.7 -1.9 19.6 21.9 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------