***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.5 14.0 16.2 -0.7 37.8 41.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.2 16.1 -0.8 36.2 40.5 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.5 15.0 16.3 -0.9 34.6 39.1 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 9.4 10.0 13.7 -0.8 35.0 39.0 9.9 10.9 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 11.3 11.8 13.6 -0.9 32.7 37.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.0 11.8 -0.6 36.6 40.3 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.6 16.2 -0.7 38.2 42.2 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.0 5.4 11.4 -0.8 32.8 37.7 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 12.8 13.1 13.8 -0.8 33.3 38.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 12.7 13.0 12.3 -0.7 34.2 39.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.9 13.1 -0.9 32.0 37.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 10.3 10.7 12.3 -0.9 32.1 37.2 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 12.0 12.4 11.8 -0.7 33.6 38.7 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 13.2 13.6 13.8 -0.8 33.8 38.9 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.3 15.1 -0.7 35.2 39.0 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.1 12.6 -0.8 32.6 37.8 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.8 16.0 -0.8 37.1 41.3 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.6 11.5 -0.7 35.4 39.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.4 16.0 -0.9 34.7 39.3 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.4 9.3 -0.7 34.1 38.9 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 12.6 13.0 15.2 -0.8 33.9 38.9 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.8 -0.8 36.9 41.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 12.4 12.8 15.8 -0.9 33.4 38.2 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 12.7 13.2 13.6 -0.7 34.8 39.5 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 12.3 12.8 14.7 -0.7 36.7 40.7 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.0 11.7 -0.6 36.3 39.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 12.2 12.9 15.6 -0.6 39.0 42.3 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 11.7 12.1 14.0 -0.8 34.5 38.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.7 10.8 -0.7 33.6 38.3 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.5 16.3 -0.8 36.7 40.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------