***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.7 13.9 15.6 -0.6 34.7 37.6 13.8 14.3 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.5 -0.7 33.7 37.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.1 15.7 -0.7 31.2 34.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.0 12.9 -0.7 28.8 33.1 10.2 10.9 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 11.9 11.9 13.2 -0.8 27.2 31.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.0 11.0 -0.6 30.5 34.8 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.6 -0.5 36.9 39.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.7 5.7 10.7 -0.8 25.5 30.3 5.9 6.4 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 13.1 13.0 13.3 -0.8 25.9 30.3 13.3 13.7 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 13.0 12.9 11.6 -0.8 26.6 31.2 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 12.8 12.7 12.6 -0.9 24.3 29.2 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 10.8 10.8 11.6 -0.8 25.0 29.8 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 12.2 12.2 11.4 -0.8 25.0 30.3 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.6 13.3 -0.7 28.9 32.8 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 -0.7 27.6 32.2 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 13.0 12.9 12.1 -0.8 24.6 29.8 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.1 15.3 -0.6 34.9 38.2 14.0 14.5 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 11.5 11.6 10.9 -0.6 29.6 33.6 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.4 -0.8 31.0 34.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.3 7.4 8.8 -0.7 27.2 31.6 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.0 14.6 -0.8 28.2 32.2 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.3 -0.6 34.7 37.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 12.9 12.9 15.1 -1.0 27.2 30.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.0 13.1 -0.7 29.8 33.7 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.1 14.2 -0.7 31.4 35.0 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.0 11.0 -0.6 30.0 35.0 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.0 -0.5 36.3 39.0 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.0 13.4 -0.7 27.2 31.9 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.8 9.8 10.2 -0.8 26.6 30.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.7 -0.6 34.5 37.5 13.8 14.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------