***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.2 26.1 -0.3 46.7 48.4 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.8 25.5 26.1 -0.6 42.3 44.9 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.8 25.4 26.0 -0.6 42.2 44.9 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.0 23.1 -0.3 45.8 47.4 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.3 25.8 23.8 -0.6 41.9 44.8 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.1 21.8 0.0 50.3 50.6 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.5 26.3 -0.3 46.8 48.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.8 21.9 -0.6 42.2 45.1 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.1 24.4 -0.7 41.3 44.3 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 26.4 25.2 22.8 -0.5 43.5 46.0 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 24.5 25.6 24.0 -0.7 41.5 44.5 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 23.4 24.5 23.1 -0.7 41.1 44.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 24.6 25.7 23.2 -0.7 40.8 43.7 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 24.0 24.8 24.0 -0.9 38.9 42.4 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.9 25.3 -0.4 45.1 47.0 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.3 26.3 23.5 -0.6 41.7 44.4 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 26.2 24.8 25.8 -0.7 41.5 44.4 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.5 21.9 -0.6 42.8 45.4 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.3 24.7 26.0 -0.9 39.9 43.0 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.4 19.9 19.5 -0.7 40.7 43.9 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.8 25.3 25.3 -0.7 41.8 44.6 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.2 25.6 -0.7 40.9 43.7 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.0 24.7 25.6 -1.1 37.4 40.9 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.1 24.6 24.0 -0.7 41.3 44.3 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.0 24.4 -0.4 44.7 46.9 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.8 22.9 -0.3 46.5 47.7 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 25.8 25.4 -0.2 47.4 48.9 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 27.9 26.9 23.9 -0.4 44.9 46.7 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.4 19.5 21.0 -0.7 41.2 44.2 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.4 26.3 -0.4 44.8 46.8 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------