***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 25.2 26.2 26.3 -0.8 39.6 41.5 25.7 26.8 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 24.2 25.1 26.2 -1.1 37.0 39.6 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 24.1 25.0 26.4 -1.1 36.6 39.3 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 17.4 18.2 23.9 -1.1 35.4 38.4 18.0 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 24.5 25.2 24.1 -1.3 33.4 37.1 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 23.4 24.2 22.0 -0.9 37.3 39.4 23.8 25.1 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 24.2 25.3 26.4 -0.8 41.0 42.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.5 22.5 -1.2 34.1 37.0 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 24.0 24.7 24.3 -1.2 34.5 37.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 24.1 24.9 23.1 -1.1 35.7 38.5 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 24.2 24.9 24.0 -1.4 32.7 36.3 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 23.7 24.2 23.8 -1.4 32.1 35.6 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 24.4 24.9 22.8 -1.5 31.6 35.3 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 24.0 24.8 24.0 -1.2 35.3 38.6 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.5 26.2 25.2 -1.1 36.3 38.7 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 25.0 25.6 23.5 -1.4 32.4 35.9 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 23.6 24.6 26.1 -1.0 37.8 40.5 24.2 25.6 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 23.5 24.3 22.6 -1.0 37.4 39.6 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 23.6 24.4 26.2 -1.3 34.9 37.9 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 18.9 19.7 19.9 -1.1 35.8 38.2 19.5 20.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 24.2 25.0 25.4 -1.1 35.8 38.9 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 24.0 24.9 25.9 -1.1 37.5 40.3 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 24.0 24.7 26.0 -1.4 33.6 36.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 23.8 24.6 24.1 -1.1 36.5 39.2 24.3 25.6 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 24.3 25.3 24.4 -0.9 37.8 40.3 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 24.3 24.9 23.6 -1.1 36.0 38.4 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 24.0 25.1 25.5 -0.7 41.0 42.5 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 25.3 26.0 24.2 -1.1 35.0 37.8 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 18.7 19.5 21.5 -1.0 36.4 38.9 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 24.1 25.0 26.4 -1.0 38.3 40.5 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------