***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 25.4 26.0 25.9 -0.4 41.9 43.1 25.5 26.3 27.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.2 25.6 25.9 -0.7 38.4 40.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 25.0 25.5 25.8 -0.8 36.7 38.8 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 18.1 18.5 22.9 -0.8 34.5 37.3 18.4 19.1 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 25.4 25.7 23.5 -1.0 31.1 34.7 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 24.2 24.5 21.3 -0.6 35.3 37.8 24.4 25.1 25.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.6 26.1 -0.3 44.0 45.0 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 13.6 13.8 21.6 -0.9 31.6 35.0 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 24.7 25.1 24.0 -0.9 32.9 35.9 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 24.8 25.2 22.5 -0.8 34.8 37.6 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 25.2 25.4 23.5 -1.0 30.0 33.7 25.5 26.3 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 24.2 24.4 22.9 -1.1 28.4 32.5 24.6 25.3 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 25.2 25.4 22.6 -1.2 26.9 31.3 25.7 26.4 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 24.8 25.2 23.8 -0.8 35.1 37.8 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 26.2 26.4 24.8 -0.8 33.8 36.9 26.4 27.1 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 25.8 26.0 23.0 -1.1 28.5 32.5 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.6 25.1 25.7 -0.6 39.5 41.5 24.7 25.6 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.6 21.8 -0.7 36.4 38.9 24.5 25.2 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 24.6 24.9 25.8 -0.9 35.4 37.7 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 19.8 20.0 19.2 -0.9 32.0 35.4 20.1 20.9 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 25.0 25.4 25.0 -0.8 34.4 37.1 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.4 25.5 25.6 -0.6 39.9 41.7 25.1 26.0 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 24.8 25.1 25.5 -1.1 32.8 35.4 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 24.4 24.9 23.7 -0.8 36.0 38.4 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 25.2 25.7 24.0 -0.7 37.3 39.5 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 25.1 25.3 22.6 -0.8 33.4 36.6 25.3 26.0 26.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 25.0 25.6 25.1 -0.4 42.7 43.7 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 26.1 26.4 23.5 -0.9 32.5 35.7 26.4 27.1 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 19.4 19.8 20.8 -0.8 34.3 37.3 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.3 25.5 26.0 -0.6 40.6 42.1 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------