***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.9 14.8 13.5 67.9 45.8 39.9 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 8.3 12.7 11.8 67.5 47.3 40.3 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.3 14.5 12.3 61.8 42.2 37.4 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 20.7 15.0 15.8 72.9 48.5 43.9 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.2 11.9 14.4 63.9 43.9 40.5 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.1 13.3 18.1 78.3 49.8 43.7 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 7.3 11.2 11.6 65.1 46.3 40.2 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 21.5 19.2 67.7 44.1 41.1 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 19.6 14.2 15.4 67.5 44.8 41.3 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.1 12.6 19.0 67.0 43.7 40.7 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.5 11.8 14.2 61.7 44.2 40.9 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.5 11.9 15.3 67.3 45.8 41.8 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.6 10.0 13.5 62.8 44.7 40.3 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.3 21.5 17.5 69.1 46.4 42.8 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 11.8 13.4 70.3 51.0 42.7 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.7 9.4 13.8 65.5 45.8 42.0 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.9 16.5 12.1 70.7 50.1 42.1 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.0 19.3 19.8 68.7 42.9 40.7 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.4 13.2 12.2 66.7 46.6 40.2 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.4 13.0 20.7 70.7 43.9 41.7 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.1 12.9 14.3 65.8 44.5 40.0 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.3 14.9 12.7 73.5 51.4 43.1 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 18.5 12.8 13.3 66.6 46.4 40.8 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.0 19.5 15.8 65.6 43.5 40.0 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 20.8 15.7 15.7 69.8 47.6 41.9 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 4.4 7.4 12.3 59.4 42.2 36.3 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.4 13.7 15.1 72.0 48.2 42.1 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.3 11.4 15.4 71.6 49.4 43.5 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.3 19.1 19.8 71.2 44.1 41.6 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.9 13.6 11.8 66.8 46.3 39.9 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------