***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.2 28.3 24.0 135.8 74.3 65.6 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 27.5 31.6 20.5 137.8 74.8 61.9 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 31.5 35.7 24.2 138.1 74.9 65.0 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 30.2 36.8 26.5 145.7 76.7 66.9 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.2 25.5 23.9 133.5 73.7 61.7 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 17.2 25.0 26.3 126.0 71.6 60.7 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 23.1 26.3 21.9 142.8 75.9 63.2 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.9 31.6 23.7 127.9 72.1 60.1 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 23.6 26.9 26.5 139.6 75.3 64.0 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 24.7 28.1 26.3 135.8 74.3 62.8 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 20.7 24.3 24.8 138.6 75.1 63.1 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.5 20.9 125.5 71.5 57.8 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 19.1 24.4 26.5 148.5 77.3 65.2 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.3 26.4 25.8 130.6 73.0 60.9 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 17.7 21.2 22.0 139.4 75.2 63.3 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.9 19.7 25.5 147.0 77.1 64.6 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 28.5 34.6 20.7 150.2 77.6 62.9 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 24.8 25.9 125.6 71.4 58.0 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 30.2 35.2 20.8 138.4 74.9 62.2 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.3 23.8 24.8 121.3 69.9 56.4 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 23.6 28.0 25.9 140.0 75.3 64.7 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.3 33.9 21.1 151.9 78.0 63.7 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 16.5 26.6 21.4 136.2 74.4 61.8 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 26.7 31.3 26.8 137.1 74.5 62.3 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 24.9 29.7 28.0 146.9 76.9 67.4 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 17.8 22.2 23.3 138.6 74.8 63.3 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.2 28.0 27.0 139.2 75.2 66.3 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 19.0 22.1 22.9 136.8 74.5 63.4 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 34.0 28.5 128.3 72.2 59.3 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 30.8 34.2 21.7 135.8 74.3 62.1 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------