***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.2 18.7 16.2 103.6 65.7 54.3 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.8 22.7 14.7 105.3 66.5 54.2 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.2 24.5 17.5 110.7 67.9 55.4 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.8 19.8 15.4 104.1 65.5 55.7 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.5 23.2 16.1 115.9 69.0 56.8 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.1 20.2 19.5 109.6 66.9 55.5 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.7 21.6 14.5 102.1 65.4 51.9 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.2 32.2 20.3 123.4 71.1 58.5 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.7 22.7 17.7 115.4 68.8 57.0 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.7 33.5 21.3 121.3 70.5 58.7 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.8 22.1 15.5 121.9 70.7 57.2 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.2 16.1 16.2 118.3 69.8 55.8 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.2 20.9 18.6 126.8 72.2 58.2 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.2 37.6 25.5 131.8 73.4 59.2 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.3 11.9 90.6 62.2 52.3 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.9 18.6 16.7 121.7 70.7 57.4 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.2 14.4 103.5 65.9 53.3 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 23.5 24.5 119.1 69.7 57.3 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 18.6 25.7 16.0 111.1 68.3 56.1 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 22.8 22.8 118.0 69.0 57.1 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.7 18.6 16.1 106.1 66.2 54.4 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.5 16.9 118.7 70.2 56.4 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.9 22.5 18.4 122.4 71.3 58.5 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.0 36.8 22.9 123.2 71.0 57.6 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.6 19.2 15.5 93.6 62.3 53.6 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.8 19.1 15.3 119.5 70.4 54.9 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 19.0 22.0 16.5 96.6 63.3 53.2 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.6 14.5 102.3 65.2 54.4 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.0 30.4 25.0 119.2 69.5 57.5 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.1 22.2 15.6 107.2 67.1 54.1 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------